Natural Variability Modes Teleconnections at Present and under Global Warming and the Attribution to Extreme Weather Events

Abstract:  

Natural modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and North Atlantic Oscillation, are known to have a significant impact on regional seasonal weather conditions and are monitored by meteorological agencies attempting to forecast seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns. Here, we use mathematical and statistical approaches to quantify how much each natural mode contributes to the regional and remote (via teleconnection) variability. Finally, we will examine how climate warming affected the contribution of each mode and distinguish which change can be explained by natural variability and which is anthropogenic.